When the usual routes are closed – new ones appear

Russia plans, over the next five years, to almost double the value of exports of fish products – from $4.7 billion in 2024 to $8.5 billion in 2030. The task is ambitious, given the tough sanctions pressure on the Russian economy, including the fishing industry, and the difficulty of predicting the conditions for its functioning in the current geopolitical situation.

The partial or complete closure of traditional markets for the export of Russian fish products led to a decline in export volumes from 2.5 million tons in 2023 to 1.9 million tons in 2024. The value of overseas supplies also fell from $5.8 billion to $4.7 billion. 

Nevertheless, after the complete closure of the US market for Russian fish exports and the introduction of restrictive measures in the European market, Russia managed to reorient its main export flows to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, as well as expand the geography of foreign supplies.

Today, according to the Federal Agency for Fishery, about 90 countries purchase Russian-produced fish and fish products. The main buyers are China, the Republic of Korea, the Netherlands, Belarus, Japan, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria.

Among the new countries: Albania, Angola, Bangladesh, Vanuatu, Guyana, Qatar, Liberia, Morocco, Niger, Palau, Panama, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Montenegro, Chile, South Africa. 

This has shown results. In the first half of 2025, there was a trend toward increased external supplies of fish and seafood. According to the Federal Agency for Fishery, in January–May exports amounted to about 975 thousand tons, which is 4% higher than the same period of 2024. In value terms, deliveries reached $2.4 billion, exceeding last year’s level by 13%.

To maintain this trend and achieve the 2030 targets, it is necessary to assess promising foreign markets for fish and fish products, taking into account geopolitical factors — a task worthy of a separate analytical study that goes far beyond the scope of this article. 

However, it is possible to identify and briefly characterize the most attractive markets for Russian fish exports. 

According to the All-Russian Association of Fishery Enterprises, Entrepreneurs and Exporters (VARPE), today up to 90% of total revenue from external operations comes from four markets: China, Korea, EU countries and Japan. At the same time, about 45% of all exports are to unfriendly countries that have imposed trade restrictions on Russia, which have also affected fish and seafood supplies. 

It is expected that EU sanctions will lead to a significant decline in the volume of Russian fish and seafood exports to Europe. According to VARPE’s forecast, the share of supplies to European countries will decrease from $779.3 million and 14.9% in 2023 to $570.4 million and 6.5% in 2030.

However, Russia can offset these losses by maintaining and developing exports to countries that have not joined the West’s sanctions policy. First of all, this refers to China, which is currently the world’s largest consumer of fish and seafood, and to which Russia actively supplies pollock, herring, crabs, flounder and various species of Pacific salmon. 

More deep processing products 

It is necessary to take into account the specifics of the development of China’s fishing industry. Today, the country’s attractiveness as a processing hub for supplies to Europe and the US is declining. Rising wages in China, additional tariffs and restrictions make Chinese processing less profitable.

In addition, there are high risks of the closure of European markets for Chinese products made from Russian raw materials.

Under these conditions, Russian experts believe, exports to China can be increased through higher supplies of deep-processed products – pollock fillets, minced meat, and surimi, the demand for which is growing in China, as well as in Japan and Korea.

Last year, Russia exported 49. 8 thousand tons of surimi, of which 25 thousand tons were shipped to China.

According to VARPE, by 2030 Russian surimi exports may reach 80 thousand tons. In value terms, growth will amount to about 60%, reaching $185.1 million. The main buyers will remain China, Japan, and Korea.

Another promising product is pollock roe, which, according to the Pollock Catchers Association (ADM), accounts for 18% of the entire export revenue of the Russian pollock sector. The main importers of this product are Korea and Japan. However, these markets are stagnating, which could be offset by supplies to China. According to ADM forecasts, pollock roe exports to China could reach 1,000 tons this year and increase to 5,000 tons in the next 2–3 years.

Crabs and fishmeal

Russia is the world leader in the supply of premium crab species. This leadership was maintained despite the US import ban imposed in 2022. Exporters managed to reorient to eastern countries — China, Japan and Korea. In China, supplies of frozen crab have increased, although earlier the country mostly imported live crab for HoReCa. Now, consumption at home is rising, making frozen crab in demand among Chinese buyers.

According to VARPE, by 2030 crab exports could double, reaching $3.6 billion. In value terms, this will account for 40.5% of all seafood supplies from Russia, with China, Japan and Korea remaining the main buyers.

Another deep-processed product with high export potential is fishmeal, driven by the growth of global aquaculture production. 

According to VARPE’s forecast, by 2030, the potential for Russian fishmeal supplies, taking production volumes into account, will amount to 546.1 thousand tons. The value of exports will increase 4.3 times, reaching $1.1 billion. The main importer will be China, the leader in warm-water aquaculture fish production.

Friendly demand and marketing strategy

However, focusing solely on China is unlikely to ensure sustainable growth in Russian seafood exports, experts say. Therefore, the strategic goal should be to expand supplies to the Asia-Pacific region and friendly countries, including BRICS partners, as well as the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.

To realize the export potential of Russian fish and seafood, an active marketing policy will be required to build a reputation as a reliable supplier of high-quality products.

Participation in international exhibitions is one of the most effective tools for promoting Russian fish products in foreign markets, especially given the need to establish new ties with consumers in the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. The largest in Asia and one of the leading in the world — the International Exhibition of Seafood and Fish Processing Technologies China Fisheries & Seafood Expo 2025 — remains a key platform for strengthening export positions. 

Reference 

In 2024, as part of the Russian National Pavilion at China Fisheries & Seafood Expo, special attention was drawn to tastings of deep-processed products — pollock roe and snow crabs. These presentations not only demonstrated the high quality of Russian seafood, but also attracted strong interest from importers, traders, retail and the HoReCa segment, especially from China, Japan and Korea.

In 2025, tastings will continue in an expanded format. This will not only support the recognition of Russian brands internationally but also lay a solid foundation for long-term contracts within the export strategy through 2030.

The exhibition is helding on October 29–31 in Qingdao (China) and will bring together more than 1,500 companies and over 42,000 professional visitors from China, Asia and around the world. The organizer of the Russian National Pavilion is traditionally the Expo Solutions Group.